top of page
Writer's pictureAlp

The Marshal-Lerner Condition and Turkey's Current Account Deficit

The Turkish current account deficit is not a new problem and it has been persistent even in the face of the falling value of the Turkish lira, and the policies to support exporters.


An account deficit is a problem as it decreases aggregate demand, and in turn, growth and it requires debt to fund if other financial inflows aren't enough.


The Marshal-Lerner condition states the elasticity of exports and imports, that is, how much they respond to price changes, should be greater than one for a currency devaluation to help with an account deficit. As the currency gets less valuable, exports are cheaper and imports are more expensive, which would lead to more exports and lower imports, reducing the deficit. However, if the exports or imports are not responsive to changes in prices, this has the opposite effect, as now less money is coming into the country and more is leaving it.


Therefore, this condition might be one explanation for the Turkish current account deficit which seems very stubborn. Therefore, the long term solution seems to go for quality of exports, instead of quantity, which would increase their elasticity.

Recent Posts

See All

Comments


bottom of page