Making money by investing in an IPO might be the most popular stock market strategy in Turkey, and there is an increasing belief that an IPO investment can't lose money. This is one of the surest signs of a bubble, and the kind of confidence that the market has just before a crash. The last time the US had exceptionally high IPO numbers, was in 2021, with over 1000 IPOs, the following year was a bear market, same for 2001 and 2007.
There have been 40 IPOs so far this year, and 52 last year, record numbers for Turkey, and accessing capital is easier than ever. With negative real interest rates, TINA, there is no alternative, was the case for Turkish investors, especially those who can't invest in real estate or foreign stocks. But after the policy pivot, this won't be the case, when the real interest rate turns positive, there could be a significant outflow from the stock market. Also, the increasing cost of capital might hurt corporate profits, leaving stocks overvalued.
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